Essa alta das ações

Após esse rally, a pergunta na cabeça de todo investidor: será que chegamos ao fundo do poço, e estamos no caminho da recuperação? Eu diria que sim, mas fiquemos atentos aos drawdowns que devem ocorrer ainda. Porque o estoque de notícias ruins está sempre ali à disposição do bear market.

Abaixo, matéria sobre o assunto publicada na versão eletrônica do NYTimes.

As one of the most dizzying bear market rallies in Wall Street history enters its second month, a nagging question faces investors: Is the stock market making real progress, or glossing over deeper problems in the economy that will start a new wave of losses?

Stocks surged more than 3 percent Thursday as a major bank predicted record profits. The announcement by Wells Fargo, one of the nation’s largest consumer banks, kindled hopes that the financial system, which dragged the larger economy toward the brink, was now poised to lead the way out.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 246 points and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose nearly 4 percent. The S.& P. 500 has now risen more than 25 percent since stocks bottomed out on March 9, one of its best runs since the Great Depression.

Signs have been accumulating that the economy, while a long way from recovery, may be bottoming. Credit markets, frozen at the height of the financial crisis, have thawed as the government shores up the financial system. Some of the worst-hit housing markets are edging toward a turnaround as low interest rates reel in buyers. On Thursday, Lawrence H. Summers, one of President Obama’s top economic advisers, declared the “free fall” in the economy was likely to end in the next few months.

But as investors abandon caution to snap up cheap bank stocks and riskier instruments, like junk bonds, to profit from the market’s earlier declines, skeptics are warning that the economy may face another leg down. Companies continue to shed jobs and consumers are hunkering down in anticipation of a halting recovery. Most of the nation’s retailers on Thursday signaled that they expected to see a continued steep decline in sales as they waited for consumers to come out of hiding.

“I think this is all setting us up for a new low,” said Thomas J. Lee, the chief United States equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, who predicted an 8 to 10 percent drop in stocks. “It’s not like I’m praying for it to happen, but it’s pretty much expected.”

do NYTimes